Next Year

(picture from Oregonlive.com)

Uh Oh, 3 game winning streak.  The season is young and to be honest I couldn't be happier.  The Blazers are meeting their expectations!  In previous seasons Roy and Oden were expected to come back and take us deep into the playoffs.  That did not happen for a variety of reasons, primarily knee problems.  This year, we were expected to struggle while leaning on Aldridge and developing Lillard and Leonard.  So far Aldridge is our leading scorer and shot blocker, and Lillard is in a dead heat for the ROY award.  Leonard is developing slowly, but has some amazing highlights along the way.  They are meeting and slightly beating expectations!  I love it, feels good.  If the playoffs started today we would be the #7 seed.

Here's where I get scared.  We are clearly not contenders.  We also lose our 1st round pick in the next draft if it falls out of the top 12.  At this rate, that's going to happen.  Then we just have development of our young players and the bench.  That's is the next issue, our bench is our biggest weakness, they have the least points in the entire league.  I say we start giving some of them significant minutes so they will develop, or so they can be used as trade chips.  Our core of starters is clearly strong, but our bench players will determine the future.

2012-2013 Western Conference

(from http://losangeles.cbslocal.com)

That is a scary sight.  So much for the collective bargaining agreement stopping the formation of superteams.  Regardless, here are my predictions for the 2012-2013 season Western Conference standings.

1. Lakers
2. Thunder
3. Clippers
4. Nuggets
5. Spurs
6. Grizzlies
7. Mavericks
8. Minnesota
---
9. Warriors (caveat - if Curry and Bogut play more than 70 games each, they make it as high as the 7th seed)
10. Jazz
11. Blazers (I could honestly see the Blazers lower than this even)
12. Hornets
13. Suns
14. Rockets
15. Kings

21 days

(photo from @pdxtrailblazers twitter feed)

So football season is here, that's nice.  I enjoy the once a week games, prepping for fantasy football competition with friends, and the highlight plays that Megatron and other big names provide.  But one day after the Thursday night game between the Cardinals and the Rams on October 5th, the Celtics will be tipping off the first preseason game against Fenerbahce Ulker Turkish club team in Instanbul.  A full season lies ahead of us following the abbreviated disaster of a season last year.  I will likely be even more NBA obsessed this year as the NHL looks to repeat history with another lockout, freeing up my time.

The picture above is from the Blazers twitter feed and has some of the only returning players from last year.  Even that picture is now outdated as Elliot Williams is out for the season with knee surgery, and his spot may be filled with the ever under-whelming Adam Morrison.  But AmMo would be one of many newly signed vets and rookies that promise to make the Blazers season interesting, as well as likely unsuccessful.  Either way I'll be watching and cheering in 21 days.

Lillard - Grain of Salt

(from blazersedge.com)

Lillard is putting up awesome numbers, against sub par competition.  The Blazers are looking for their point guard of the future aka pgotf.  This seems eerily similar to when Jerryd Bayless tore up the summer league.  Everyone was reeeally excited, myself included.  And I am currently excited that we have a player that is proving he can do well against not quite nba level talent.  He is already getting comparisons to Derrick Rose without having played a single nba game!

I hope that Speed Demian Lilliard is the next great league guard, but I am going to wait until the regular season.

Draft/Trade Thoughts

(picture from bostonherald.com)

Just had a crazy thought and wanted to write it down..  Luckily nobody reads this blog.

I think there is an unwritten rule that you never trade away proven all-star talent for draft picks.  However, what if the Blazers could get a total of three lottery level draft picks this year?  Our only three proven talented players by my count are Lamarcus, Batum, and Matthews.  What if we traded away 1 or 2 of these guys for additional picks?  The problem is that this also has to be worth it for the other team.

Scenario 1 - Lamarcus and Matthews for Anthony Davis/salary.  Trade a proven big and a starter for the #1 draft pick.  Who wins this trade at first glance?  I have no idea.  We lose a proven big about to enter the prime of his career as well as a a starter to the Hornets to pair with Eric Gordon.  I don't know if draft slots #6 and #11 are enough to put us over the top, so I'm OK with that.  We get someone in Davis who has the potential to be an amazing all-star for years to come, and he grows along with the #6 and #11 pick of a deep draft! 

Scenario 2 - Trade Matthews or Batum for somewhere between a #5 - #15 pick.  Batum would obviously bring a higher pick than Matthews.  Here we end up with 3 young talented players to pair with Lamarcus.  Who knows who will eventually pan out, conservatively 2 of 3 become starters.  None of our last couple drafts have turned out to be very good, so this scenario hedges on high picks and lots of them to turn our fortunes.

Both of these scenarios are in the OKC model of letting a young talented core grow together.  Based on last night's Western Conference championship game, I'm a fan of this scenario.  This is all likely moot based on Olshey's desire to "re-tool" vs. "re-build."  

Lastly, I would like to mention that I would mourn the loss of Aldridge and/or Batum, but don't tell me either of the above scenarios would not be exciting to watch unfold.

ND 2012 Draft

(pic stolen from some other random blog)

Two picks in the lower first round, I love it.  We need a point guard and we need a center.  There are a couple of good centers in this draft, and some not-so-amazing point guards.  My take is that we draft the best point guard available to us at 6 and the best remaining center at 11.  We then let Mr. new PG duke it out with Nolan Smith for the first half of the season.  I don't think Smith is the answer at the point, but we haven't really given him a shot either.  We already have one of the best PF/C in the league with Aldridge.  Just get him some support!

My Blazers mock draft:

Pick #6 is a)Damian Lillard first or if he is gone b)Kendall Marshall

Pick #11 is any of the following with this best health history: Andre Drummond/Tyler Zeller/Meyers Leonard

You pull the trigger on these draft picks unless you can get an elite PG or Center without giving up Aldridge or Batum.  OK maybe even Batum depending on the trade details.

Hope vs. Expectations

(photo from Oregonlive.com)

I'm getting excited about the blazers losing...wait, what?

The point of this post is that I am torn between high expectations and hope for the future.  When I had expectations of the Roy/Aldridge/Oden trio, I stressed whenever they did not live up to the humungous potential I had built for them in my head.  But now, having a base core of good (not great) players, I am hopeful that we will be able to do something good with what will likely be 2 low draft picks.  That is way less stressful, it's actually exciting.  I want to get back to the high expectations point in my relationship with the Blazers again, but for now I'm going to enjoy the Hope this draft brings.